TUESDAY -- "Climate change. We in the United States are trying to duck this one, but we can't," proclaimed Michael Eckhart in his keynote opener this morning. "It's there, it's a serious problem, and renewable energy is one of the leading solutions to climate change."

Eckhart is the president of the American Council on Renewable Energy, which hosted the Power-Gen Renewable Energy and Fuels conference this week in Las Vegas.

Power-Gen 2006 articles:
"Monday -- Renewable Energy World Acquisition Announced"
"Wednesday -- Guide to On-Site Renewable Energy Incentives in the Energy Policy Act"
"Podcast -- Power-Gen Renewable Energy Expo 2006 Audio Tour"

No national policy
Leading off a two-hour keynote session, Eckhart asked if fragmented state-by-state policies and short-term renewals of production tax credits would get the U.S. to 50 percent renewable energy by the year 2050. "No, it will not. We need solutions at the national level," he answered.

More global concerns were on the mind of keynote speaker Hank Courtright, EPRI Vice President of Environment and Energy Analysis. He drove home the point that renewables are most viable, and electrification most impactful, where no incumbent, centralized infrastructure exists.

"It should be the goal of the industry to bring affordable electric energy to every household in the world," Courtright argued, noting that two billion people live without electricity today. "I've been to Africa, and I've seen what adding a light bulb to a hut can do for a child who can study at night," he added.

Uncertainty beyond PTC
Lorraine Bolsinger, Vice President of GE Energy's Ecomagination program, sees plenty of opportunities for renewables in the U.S.

"Hydropower is our most reliable and mature source of renewable energy," Bolsinger said. "It represents 20 percent of our electricity and we are the second-largest installed base of hydro in the world. So why aren't solar, wind and geothermal as successful as hydro?"

Bolsinger explained that the wind industry is hampered by uncertainty beyond the 2007 expiration of the production tax credit. GE has already sold the 3,700 turbines it plans to manufacture in the next two years. But the company is holding off on making investments and supply chain commitments beyond the end of the PTC, she said.

In North America, the market for solar power grew by 37 percent in 2005, Bolsinger said. The growth was driven mostly by tax credits and incentives. This, combined with growth in Europe beyond Germany, and growth in Asia beyond Japan, led to 100 MW of solar growth in 2005. Renewable portfolio standards could improve the long-term outlook for solar in the U.S., she explained, but the states that are notable in their absence from the RPS map are the windy central states and the sunny southeast.

Markets are isolated
Jeff Sterba is responsible for some of wind's growth. He is CEO of Public Service New Mexico, which has invested in wind energy and wants to invest more.

"The reason we invested in renewables was not because it was necessarily the lowest cost resource," Sterba said. "It was because our customers wanted it. We scaled it up because we saw opportunities in wholesale markets. Our investments are not part of a regulated scenario, they are not required by RPS and they are not covered by a cost recovery mechanism."

Following the most recent renewal of the PTC, Sterba considered expanding PNM's investments, but was surprised to find wind equipment costs had risen by 60 percent. He acknowledged the cost and reliability challenges facing wind energy, and added that the U.S. must create regional markets for renewable energy.

Transmission concerns
Bill Keese would agree with Sterba on the need for regional markets. As Co-Chair of the Western Governor's Association's Clean and Diversified Energy Advisory Committee, Keese speaks for 18 states.

"We can't have states thinking their renewable energy policies can stop at the border," Keese said. "We have to think of regional solutions."

A robust transmission system is important to the growth of wind energy, but no more essential than for coal, solar, or geothermal, according to Keese.

"There isn't a significant difference in the transmission needs for any other scenario, including coal," Keese said.

Efficiency can do more
The one scenario that won't require more transmission investments is energy efficiency. Keese noted that if the best practices in the west were used throughout the west, if could equal 48,000 MW of capacity by 2015 -- more than the projections for wind, solar, or geothermal.

Efficiency will be gained, he said, by increasing the use of demand side management best practices, and by continually upgrading building standards.