Opinion

Bush's stated plan is, in short, to convene the world's biggest emitters and -- just in time for the 2008 presidential elections -- establish a Kyoto Protocol-like program.

White House Fact Sheet: A New International Climate Change Framework

Were Mr. Bush more of a long-term thinker, it would be conceivable that he envisioned the U.S. as the leader in whatever carbon agreement follows the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in five short years.

Bush proposed that all countries work within the UN process to strengthen programs addressing energy efficiency and advance the global transfer and adoption of clean energy technologies, while refusing less than a month ago to work within any process to cap emissions in his own country.

And had he historically shown concern for his nation's image on the world stage, then this week's G8 Summit -- at which German Chancellor Angela Merkel has declared climate change the top agenda item -- might be a believable impetus for Bush's apparent change of heart.

Why now? It's not rocket science

In searching for a reason, beyond the upcoming elections, a dichotomy comes to mind -- one that has evolved for the administration on the nuclear-energy front. Bush is an overt supporter of increasing U.S. reliance on nuclear energy, pushing for and getting subsidies and other federal supports in the Energy Policy Act of 2005.

So what's the contradiction? The nuclear industry has found a new public-opinion foothold on climate change. Describing nuclear as "green" or "clean" goes only so far, when the U.S. officially refuses to admit that carbon emissions are serious enough to warrant action. Despite government incentives and loan guarantees, nuclear progress since 2005 has been cautious. A strong verbal hint at impending carbon caps will light a fire under the nuclear industry, as well as helping the "clean coal" business.

The chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality said the world should embrace "several simultaneous efforts" to avoid dangerous climate change and at the same time boost "nonpolluting energy supplies." Did you hear the dog whistle?

The apparent sudden shift of Bush policy predictably made the news all week, and will continue to draw U.S. media attention throughout the Summit. Watch for polite signs of a sour start between Bush and host country leader Merkel, who had previously announced a carbon plan of her own.

Then, if the Bush plan isn't dropped completely, there will be a lull in activity while participants engage in extended discussions about the shape of the negotiating table. Expect token meetings and photo opps after the presidential primaries. Then, like the "man on Mars" imperative of the early Bush days, this too shall pass.